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Brexit - Turn out is the key..



According to a BBC focus group, the leave camp won the debate 39%-34%.

The last polls show a contest that it too close to calls in that the results are within the margin of error.

The Financial Times poll of polls has it at 45%-44% in favor of Brexit.

However, the betting markets appear to be telling a different story.  Indicative prices suggest an 80% chance of a victory for the remain camp.  The odds-makers have reportedly seen a strong shift toward the remain camp since June 14.  The events market, Predict It, also has seen the shift toward remain.  A week ago, one had to "bet" 47 cents to get a $1 if Brexit won. Now it costs 23 cents.


The new polls suggest that trends in recent months remain unchanged even after Cox Tragedy .  Older voters are more likely to back Brexit, with almost twice as many people aged over 65 set to vote for leaving the EU than those under 35.  Younger voters are likely to favor Remain.



The turnout of voters - which is also seen as pivotal in shaping the outcome - will come out by 1145 pm ( IST ) and could trigger some early trading action in the markets.  A high turnout is likely to imply a victory for the "remain" camp, because it probably means that more young people voted in the referendum.  This referendum is all about Rich-Poor and Urban-Rural divide .  While Rich and Urban may not turn out in big numbers for vote, Poor and Rural population would turn out in large numbers . As such the turn out in London holds the key for now



In the absence of exit polls, hedge funds have commissioned private surveys to give them a head start .That means financial markets could start to react to the referendum before any official results have been announce

GBP is holding onto most of the gains it scored in the rush from $1.4010 on June 16 to nearly 1.4800 today .




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